Bahia vs Grêmio – News and Probable Lineups

Bahia will clash with Grêmio on Sunday afternoon, May 17 at the Casa de Apostas Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador, during the 16th round of the 2026 Brasilian Championship. Coverage of the match will be available on TV Globo, GeTV, and Premiere.

Bahia is on a winless streak of over a month as they face a Grêmio side that has recently fallen into the relegation zone after losing to Flamengo. The stakes are high for both teams: the home side aims to narrow the gap to the top four, while the visitors seek to initiate a turnaround before the World Cup break. Below is the prediction and detailed analysis of the matchup.

Match overview

Bahia heads into the fixture against Grêmio having hit a low point this season. The Tricolor de Aço has not secured a victory in six matches, including losses to Flamengo, Cruzeiro, and Remo — the latter two occurring in the Copa do Brasil — and draws against Santos and São Paulo.

Their last win was on April 11, when they triumphed over Mirassol with a score of 2-1 away in the 11th round of the Brasileirão. Since then, defensive issues have plagued Rogério Ceni’s team: in their last three outings, the Esquadrão has conceded first, allowing the opening goal on average after just 21 minutes.

Being knocked out of the Copa do Brasil has further heightened the frustration. Remo triumphed in both legs of the fifth round, winning 3-1 at the Arena Fonte Nova and 2-1 in the return match at Mangueirão, culminating in a 5-2 aggregate score. Consequently, Bahia is left with only the Brasilian Championship to focus on for the remainder of the year, mirroring their exit from the Copa Libertadores qualifiers back in February, which also dashed hopes for continental play. Due to new CBF regulations, the club will participate in only 53 matches this year — their lowest total since 2005, the year they were relegated to Série C.

In the Brasileirão standings, Bahia sits in sixth place with 22 points from 14 fixtures and still have a postponed match against Chapecoense to fulfill. So far, their campaign consists of six victories, four draws, and four losses, netting 20 goals while conceding 18.

However, when playing at home, there are concerns regarding their recent performance: the Tricolor has gone four consecutive matches without a win at the Arena Fonte Nova, suffering defeats to Palmeiras and Remo along with a draw against Santos, during which they gave up seven goals in front of their home crowd. The number of matches in 2026 is also significantly lower than the 80 matches played last season across various competitions like the Copa do Nordeste, Libertadores, Sul-Americana, and Brasileirão.

The last encounter between these teams, during the 29th round of the 2025 Brasileirão, resulted in a devastating 4-0 loss for Bahia at the Fonte Nova, with goals from Iago, Willian José, David Duarte, and Rodrigo Nestor. However, in their overall head-to-head record, Grêmio has the edge: out of 63 matches played, the Imortal emerged victorious 26 times, while the Tricolor de Aço has 17 wins, and 20 matches concluded in draws.

On the flip side, Grêmio makes their way to Salvador with some positive news. The Tricolor Gaúcho achieved a 3-0 victory over Confiança in the second leg of the Copa do Brasil fifth round, securing their advancement to the last 16 with a 5-0 aggregate score. Braithwaite netted two goals, one from the penalty spot and another via a header from a Willian cross, with Willian himself finishing the scoring with another penalty.

This progression satisfies one of the goals set internally by Luís Castro’s coaching staff, who had already claimed the Gauchão title earlier this season — achievements that eluded them in 2025.

However, the situation in the Brasilian Championship isn’t as bright. Grêmio occupies the 17th spot, placing them right in the relegation zone with 17 points from 15 matches. Their record consists of four wins, five draws, and six losses. A recent setback, a 1-0 defeat to Flamengo in Porto Alegre, saw the team drop three places and push them into a precarious position. In their last five league fixtures, they’ve managed only two wins, and the gap between sixth and 17th place is merely five points, making every round a critical moment for mid-table teams.

Luís Castro has publicly set a target for Grêmio in the upcoming weeks: to climb out of the relegation zone before the Brasileirão takes a break for the World Cup. The margin for error is slim, and a loss in Salvador could further complicate that mission.

Conversely, a positive result on the road against a struggling Bahia team that hasn’t won in over a month could serve as a pivotal moment for the Gaúcho club’s campaign. Still, the context leans towards the home team: despite their struggles, Bahia boasts the sixth-best attack in the tournament and will be supported by a crowd eager for immediate results from Rogério Ceni. Grêmio, with a makeshift defense and the burden of the relegation zone hanging over them, will need to perform under significant pressure.

Team News

The good news for the Tricolor is the return of Willian José and Kanu, as they are cleared by the medical team and have begun training with the ball as of Friday, May 15. The session, directed by Rogério Ceni, focused on technical drills, emphasizing ball possession in tight spaces.

Ronaldo and Ruan Pablo were also spotted on the pitch, but only participated in a mixed session, alternating between gym work and outdoor practice. Meanwhile, Caio Alexandre is continuing his physical rehabilitation. Santiago Mingo, on the other hand, will miss the match due to receiving a third yellow card.

For the upcoming match against Bahia, manager Castro will be without the suspended Pavón. This means that Marcos Rocha is expected to take up the wide position.

Still missing Arthur, Thiaguinho is the likely candidate to step in as a midfielder. Balbuena, who was substituted during the match against Confiança with a suspected muscle injury, is also ruled out for this fixture.

Bahia probable starting XI:

Leo Vieira; Acevedo, David Duarte, Xavier, Iago Borduchi (Luciano Juba); Erick, Jean Lucas, Everton River; Kike Olivera, Willian Joseph, Eric Flea. Manager: Roger Ceni.

Gremio probable starting XI:

Weverton; Viery, Noriega, Wagner Leonardo; Leo Perez, Dodi, Pedro Gabriel, Willian; Gabriel Mec, Amuzu; Carlos Vinícius. Manager: Luis Castro.

Bahia enters the pitch in dire need of a victory to boost confidence among their followers following six matches without a win. Taking home advantage into account, they are only two points behind fourth-placed São Paulo, and a win could put them firmly back in contention for a top-four finish.

Grêmio arrives with a morale boost following their Copa do Brasil progress, but the reality in the Brasileirão differs: a loss to Flamengo has pushed them into the relegation zone, their defense is compromised due to the absences of Pavón and Balbuena, and the Arena Fonte Nova stands as one of the most challenging venues in the league for visiting squads.