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Independiente vs. Tolima – News and Probable Lineups

By

Joel
Lefevre

|



Independiente xTolima - prediction, team news, lineups

On Tuesday, the final quarter-finalist in the 2026 Copa Libertadores will be decided as Independiente del Valle takes on Deportes Tolima in the second leg of their matchup from Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Equador.

The Ecuadorian side secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Tolima in the first leg, and the team that progresses will go on to meet Flamengo in the quarter-finals.

Match overview

Independiente del Valle is just one result away from reaching the Libertadores quarter-finals for the first time in ten years, having taken an early lead and maintained it in the first leg.

Joaquin Papa Monestier’s squad comes into this fixture with a remarkable 15-match winning streak across all competitions, with seven of those victories occurring at home.

On Tuesday, they aim to keep their 100% home record intact in this tournament, having won all three of their group matches at Estadio Banco Guayaquil with an aggregate score of 8-2.

Los Negriazules have never faced elimination in a two-legged Libertadores tie after winning the first match.

This year in the 2026 tournament, they have been one of the most creative and attacking teams, leading in big chances created, while also topping the charts for missed big opportunities.

The club based in Quito has never lost at home to a Colombian opponent in the Libertadores, though they have only managed one victory in such encounters (3-0 against Junior FC in 2020).

The postponement of the first leg and the aftermath of the recent devastating earthquake in Colombia earlier this month appeared to affect Tolima, who started slowly last week, conceding the sole goal after just 11 minutes.

The Colombian team had opportunities but was unable to convert them, recording four shots on target and dominating possession with 68% but failing to find the net.

This situation has left Sebastian Oliveros Gabriel’s side in a position where they must win, having yet to secure a victory in the Libertadores knockout stage, after losing 7-1 against Flamengo in their only prior round of 16 away fixture in this tournament.

In the 2026 season, they have found the back of the net only once in away matches during the competition, while conceding three or more goals in two of their three group stage encounters as guests.

Although they are unbeaten in their last three competitive away games in normal time, they have claimed victory in just one of their last five matches outside of home after 90 minutes.

At the same time, El Vinotinto y Oro are unbeaten in two of their last three Libertadores matches played in Ecuador, drawing against Independiente del Valle in 2022 (2-2) and defeating CD Macara in 2020 (1-0).

Team News

Independiente del Valle will once again be without Patrik Mercado due to a cruciate ligament tear, while Jean Arroyo is out with a fracture of the tibia and fibula, Guido Villar is uncertain with a knee issue, and Juan Cazares will be unavailable because of a ligament problem.

Aron Rodriguez netted the only goal in the opening leg, while Aldair Quintana recorded four saves, marking his third clean sheet in this competition.

On the Tolima side, Brayan Rovira may return to action on Tuesday despite previously suffering a right knee injury, while Luis Sanchez could also be available after dealing with a similar problem.

Alvino Volpi Neto will hope to secure his second consecutive clean sheet away from home in this competition on Tuesday, having halted two efforts from Universitario in a 0-0 draw during the group stages.

Independiente del Valle probable starting XI:

A. Quintana; Romero, Carabajal, Schunke, Loor; Alcivar; Rodriguez, H. Quintana, Sornoza, Pata, Gonzalez

Deportes Tolima probable starting XI:

Net; Mosquera, A. Angulo, J. Angulo, Hernandez; Guzman, Rovira; Hurtado, Martinez, Sanchez; Sandoval

Tolima has the potential to make a comeback in this tie, but it may not be sufficient against the focused, resilient, and highly disciplined Ecuadorian team.

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