AC Milan vs Cagliari – News and Probable Lineups

With their Champions League destiny firmly in their hands, AC Milan can secure a place in the competition by defeating Cagliari at San Siro on Sunday.

The final Serie A round on Sunday will see four clubs compete for the last two qualifying spots, leaving Milan’s status in UEFA’s prestigious tournament uncertain.

Match overview

As they occupy the last two Champions League positions, Milan and Roma are just two points clear of Juventus and Como as they head into the decider.

However, since Serie A does not initially apply goal difference to separate teams finishing on equal points, a complex situation could arise if Milan draws on Sunday while Juve and Como both secure wins.

Points in direct encounters take precedence, followed by goal difference in those matches, before evaluating the overall league performance, and the criteria continue beyond that.

Nonetheless, Milan’s decent performance against their rivals in key matches suggests that even a draw might suffice, and a loss may not be catastrophic.

In fact, if they triumph over his former club Cagliari and Napoli falter, Max Allegri’s side will finish second to Inter de Milão despite a poor run since clinching the Derby della Madonnina.

After that victory, the Rossoneri are still within reach of Inter, but they have had to watch their city rivals revel in an unusual domestic double.

In contrast, Milan’s campaign has taken a completely different turn, leaving them desperately clinging to a position in European football.

While they narrowly overcame Genoa last week, Milan has not achieved back-to-back victories in league play since early March; ahead of their final home game, they have taken only one point from their last three matches at San Siro.

Yet, historical patterns suggest they are likely to succeed: the Lombardy giants have secured 18 wins out of their last 21 top-flight home fixtures against Cagliari, with the other three ending in draws.

While Milan have only dropped two points in their last eight final-day fixtures – including a 3-0 win over Cagliari in 2020 – the Rossoblu have lost five of their last six Serie A matches.

Moreover, after being defeated 1-0 in their earlier encounter this season, Cagliari have managed just one triumph in their last 42 league matchups.

Thus, their last victory away against Milan dates back to June 1997, making the odds heavily favor the home team this weekend.

In a more recent outing, Cagliari secured their Serie A survival with a 2-1 victory over Torino, reaching the critical 40-point milestone.

Importantly, since Inter defeated them 3-0 during their last trip to Milan in April, the Sardinian squad has gathered seven points from four games.

Having ensured their top-flight status for another season, Fabio Pisacane’s players now must visit Italy’s second-largest city one final time.

However, they’ve accumulated only two points from their last six away matches since January, failing to find the net in either of the past two.

Team News

Milan managed to squeeze past Genoa despite missing several key players, but Rafael Leao, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Pervis Estupinan are expected to return from suspension on Sunday.

Veteran playmaker Luka Modric could also make a starting appearance, having swiftly recovered from a serious facial injury, which leaves Allegri with a complete squad to select from.

Leao has netted six Serie A goals against Cagliari so far but has yet to reach double figures this season; both he and Christian Pulisic have been facing challenges over the past few months.

Consequently, Christopher Nkunku – who has converted penalties successfully in his last two games – and Santiago Gimenez are likely to continue their attacking partnership.

After scoring last week, Cagliari’s Sebastiano Esposito is just one goal shy of matching his best output in a top-flight season; the former Inter striker has accumulated seven goals and five assists this term.

Rossoblu center-back Ze Pedro will be back from a one-match suspension, but several of Pisacane’s players remain sidelined.

ACL injury victims Mattia Felici and Riyad Idrissi are still in the recovery phase, while Joseph Liteta and Leonardo Pavoletti are unavailable; Luca Mazzitelli is also a significant doubt.

AC Milan probable starting XI:

Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Nkunku, Gimenez

Cagliari probable starting XI:

Caprile; Ze Pedro, Mina, Dossena; Palestra, Adopo, Gaetano, Folorunsho, Obert; Esposito, Mendy

Since Milan requires the points significantly more – and Cagliari struggles on the road – a narrow victory will secure the hosts’ qualification for the Champions League.

Following a promising beginning, the Rossoneri have experienced difficulty since the onset of spring, so they will be relieved to simply cross the finish line.