Houston vs St. Louis City – News and Probable Lineups

Houston Dynamo will face St Louis City in Major League Soccer on Saturday at Shell Energy Stadium, marking the final day of the regular season.

Both teams find themselves tied at 51 points in the MLS standings, meaning Houston requires a victory to assure home advantage in the best-of-three playoff round, while St Louis would secure it with either a win or a draw.

Match overview

Houston has accumulated 51 points from 14 wins, nine draws, and 10 losses, and a recent 3-1 defeat to Portland on November 1 has seen them drop from the top four to fifth place, tied on points with St Louis but trailing on goal difference.

The defeat followed a 1-0 victory at Seattle on October 28, marking Houston’s first win on the road against the Sounders, thanks to a header from Lucas Halter from a Mateusz Bogusz corner in the 26th minute, his inaugural goal in 20 league appearances for this season.

Jonathan Bond recorded six saves while Seattle outshot Houston 21-2, resulting in Houston achieving their 13th clean sheet of the MLS season, equaling the club record.

This win ended a winless streak of seven matches in the league, which included a goalless draw at home against Minnesota United on October 24.

In the match against Portland, Agustin Bouzat’s goal in the 71st minute was Houston’s sole shot on target, in contrast to the Timbers’ six attempts resulting in goals from David Da Costa, Kristoffer Velde, and Vincent Janssen.

Guilherme had been involved in 26 of Houston’s 42 league goals before that match, a substantial 61.9% involvement rate, which explains the lack of opportunities created without him and Hector Herrera, given Guilherme’s impressive tally of 16 goals and 10 assists being the best in the squad.

St Louis similarly holds 51 points from 14 wins, nine draws, and 10 defeats, currently sitting fourth with a goal difference of +10 compared to Houston’s +1.

The City is arriving on a streak of four consecutive MLS defeats, with the first of those a 3-2 loss against Minnesota United on October 17, where they managed to lead 2-0 early on but ended a 21-match unbeaten run across all competitions.

This was followed by a 3-0 loss to Real Salt Lake on October 24, where Tomas Ostrak received a second yellow card in the 44th minute, and subsequently a 3-2 defeat against Portland at Energizer Park on October 28 and a 1-0 loss to San Diego on October 31 due to a goal from Anders Dreyer in the 38th minute, despite City having 16 shots to 12 and seven on target compared to three.

Yoann Damet attributed the poor form to fatigue, resulting from seven matches played over 20 days, including winning the US Open Cup final against Columbus on October 21, where the game ended in a goalless draw and went to penalties, with Ben Lundt saving the first spot-kick and Daniel Edelman scoring the decisive one.

Carlo Holse, who was signed from Samsunspor for a reported $6m, making him the most expensive signing in the club’s history, scored a hat trick in just 21 minutes during the 6-2 victory against LA Galaxy on October 11, marking the second regular-season hat trick in City’s history.

This season, St Louis managed to defeat Houston twice, winning the US Open Cup quarter-final on penalties on May 19 after a 2-2 draw, which featured saves from Lundt on penalties from both Guilherme and Herrera, and then winning the league encounter 2-1 on August 22, with Dante Polvara netting the winner in the 86th minute following Ibrahim Aliyu’s equalizer, while Marcel Hartel, who netted twice in the cup match, was transferred to Hannover on August 11.

Team News

Bond was substituted in the starting lineup during the warm-up ahead of the match against Portland, and Jimmy Maurer remains sidelined with a back injury, which allowed Blake Gillingham to start and he made three saves.

Guilherme and Herrera were both absent from the game against Portland, and their availability for Saturday has yet to be confirmed, while Marcelo Saracchi is still out.

Franco Negri was taken off in the 36th minute at Portland and substituted by Duane Holmes, Felipe Andrade returned from injury to come off the bench, and Agustin Resch has rejoined the defence alongside Halter since the Seattle match.

For St Louis, Roman Burki resumed training on Tuesday, November 3, after suffering a concussion in the Open Cup final, and Damet has indicated that he will not rush the goalkeeper back, leaving Lundt as the alternative option.

Alexandru Matan, who has been absent from the last three league games due to a lower-leg injury, was also back in training on Tuesday and could be limited to a spot on the bench.

Ostrak returned as a substitute against San Diego after his red card at Salt Lake, Holse was omitted from the starting lineup for the defeats against Minnesota and Salt Lake, and striker Rafael Navarro, who scored the opener against Minnesota, was ineligible for the Open Cup final.

Houston Dynamo probable starting XI:

Bond; Negri, Resch, Halter; Aliyu, Artur, Herrera, Bouzat, Ennali; Guilherme, Bogusz

St Louis City probable starting XI:

Lund; Fall, Baumgartl, Polvara; Totland, Edelman, Durkin, Wallem, Holse; Becher, Navarro

For Houston to secure a win at home, they will need to replicate their previous performance against Seattle, where they triumphed despite being outshot 21-2, with Bogusz’s corners leading to Halter’s header and five assists credited to the midfielder this season.

St Louis has managed to score in just one of their last three league matches, having let slip a 2-0 lead against Minnesota, and considering they only need a draw, they may opt to protect that point with Burki and Matan returning from injury.

However, it’s worth noting that City has accomplished victories over Houston on two occasions this year and effectively dominated San Diego in terms of shots, while Houston’s record-equalling 13 clean sheets, alongside Guilherme’s potential return, could tilt a close match in favor of the home side.