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Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction – La Liga

Check out the best predictions for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Here you will find the best prediction for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, along with an analysis of the match and betting tips.

Read below our detailed analysis of the two teams, including recent performances and key statistics from their last matches, to offer the best prediction for this encounter between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano.

Real Madrid logo
Real Madrid

  • February 1, 2026 – 13::00
  • La Liga

  • 2025/2026
  • Regular season – Matchday 22
Rayo Vallecano logo
Rayo Vallecano


Betting tip and prediction for this match between Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

The best prediction for the match Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano in La Liga is over 3.0 Asian goals. It is expected that Real Madrid will control the game, yet both teams provide exciting displays with multiple goal-scoring opportunities. Notably, four of Rayo Vallecano’s last five official matches have ended with more than two goals in regular time. Thus, it is anticipated that both Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano will take few defensive precautions, leaving their goals constantly at risk.

Best prediction for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Over 3.0 Asian goals

Match prediction for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

The teams Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano will face off at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu for Matchday 22 of La Liga. In their last encounter in this competition on November 9, 2025, the final result was a 0-0 draw. At this stadium, the head-to-head record is favorable to the home team, which has 3 victories and 1 draw in the last 4 matches. The last time they met at this venue was on March 9, 2025, in a La Liga match that ended with Real Madrid winning 2-1. The goals in that match were scored by Kylian Mbappé (30′) and Vinícius Júnior (34′) for Real Madrid, and Pedro Díaz (45′) for Rayo Vallecano. This game could see the home advantage play a significant role, as Real Madrid has shown considerable differences in results when playing at home versus away.

Real Madrid Analysis

The home team is currently in 2nd place, having garnered 51 points from 16 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. In their penultimate match, they won at home against Levante 2-0. In the latest match, they secured a victory away against Villarreal 2-0. This team is stronger when playing in their stadium, as they have 13 wins and 2 losses at home over the last 30 games compared to 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses away. The team comes into this match after a defeat away to Benfica 4-2. In the league, Real Madrid has achieved 27 points out of a possible 30, following 9 wins and 1 loss in their last 10 home matches. In league games at home, the most frequent halftime score has been 0-0 (4 out of 10 games). Their attack has been consistently finding the net, having scored in 8 of the last 10 games in this competition. In 21 matches in this competition, they have only managed to come back once when they conceded first.

Real Madrid enters this encounter following a 4-2 defeat against Benfica in the Champions League. In their previous La Liga match, the visitors defeated Villarreal 2-0. The home team typically plays in a 3-4-3 formation, favoring a quicker style of play with constant transitions. The three players likely to cause discomfort in the opposition area will be Franco Mastantuono, Kylian Mbappé, and Vinícius Júnior. When they attack, the team tends to favor the left side, exploiting the offensive thrust of full-back Álvaro Carreras to create imbalances. Éder Militão will miss this clash due to fitness issues.

Confirmed lineup: Thibaut Courtois, David Alaba, Álvaro Carreras, Dean Huijsen, Federico Valverde, Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga, Franco Mastantuono, Kylian Mbappé, Vinicius Junior.
Coach: Á. Arbeloa Coca.

Rayo Vallecano Analysis

After 5 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, the visiting team is in 16th place, having earned 22 points. In their last match, they lost to Osasuna 3-1 at home, following a loss away to Celta de Vigo, 3-0, in the previous game. This team maintains performance when playing away, as they have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses from their last 30 away games, compared to 6 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses at home. In their last 10 away games in the league, Rayo Vallecano has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, earning only 7 points out of a possible 30. In their away matches, the most common halftime score after the first 45 minutes has been 1-0, which occurred in 5 of their 10 games. Defensive solidity has not been their strong suit, having conceded goals in 7 of the last 10 matches in this competition. In 21 matches in this competition, they have never managed to turn around their position in the 11 games where they conceded first.

Rayo Vallecano arrives at this match on the back of a 3-1 defeat to Osasuna, marking their second consecutive loss in La Liga: their only goal was scored by Pathé Ismaël Ciss. Under the guidance of Iñigo Pérez, the team typically employs a 4-3-3 tactical system, where the three players in the frontline are Álvaro García, Ilias Akhomach, and Jorge de Frutos. When attacking, the team tends to exploit the left corridor, utilizing Josep Chavarría’s depth and ability to create dangerous situations. Diego Mendez and Abdul Mumin will miss this match due to injury.

Confirmed lineup: Augusto Batalla, Pep Chavarría, Florian Lejeune, Alfonso Espino, Pedro Díaz, Óscar Valentín, Pathé Ciss, Isi Palazón, Álvaro García, Jorge de Frutos, Carlos Martín.
Coach: F. Rodríguez Vílchez.

Best prediction for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Over 3.0 Asian goals

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