Estonia vs Iceland – News and Probable Lineups

In a match that could play a crucial role in the push for automatic advancement from UEFA Nations League Group C4, Estônia are set to host Islândia at Lillekula Stadium on Tuesday for their fourth round of fixtures.

The visitors currently top the group with seven points, two ahead of Estônia, who themselves are two points clear of third-placed Luxemburgo, setting the stage for an intriguing top-of-the-table clash.

Match overview

Estônia have never played above the third division of the Nations League, but their ambition to clinch a first promotion to League B has begun positively, even as they started the tournament with back-to-back away fixtures.

After two draws in their initial outings on the road against Islândia and Bulgária, Jurgen Henn’s side made the most of their first home match of the tournament on Saturday, securing a 1-0 win over Luxemburgo.

A quick goal from Rasmus Peetson was key in earning full points in Tallinn, stretching Estônia’s unbeaten streak to five matches in all competitions (W3, D2), during which they’ve recorded four clean sheets.

Nonetheless, the upcoming challenge against opponents ranked 53 places above the hosts, who sit at 127th in the FIFA World Rankings, may be daunting. However, Estônia’s recent home form provides reason for optimism as they are yet to suffer a defeat in their last four games on home soil, with the preceding three resulting in victories and clean sheets.

Islândia are on a mission for immediate promotion after their relegation from the second tier in the 2024-25 season, particularly given their presence in League A during the inaugural two editions of the Nations League.

Strakarnir Okkar have made an impressive comeback, following their opening-day draw at Estônia with consecutive 3-0 victories against Luxemburgo and Bulgária, the latter of which saw an Orri Oskarsson double and a late strike from Mikael Egill Ellertsson.

Head coach Arnar Gunnlaugsson will be particularly pleased with the current performance of his team, especially as they had previously gone seven matches without a win (D3, L4) prior to their recent consecutive victories. Additionally, all four of their wins in the last 15 games came in matches where they maintained clean sheets.

While Islândia will recognize the importance of a robust defensive display to secure a positive outcome, they must also tackle a poor away record, having lost seven out of 11 UEFA Nations League group-stage encounters on the road (W2, D2).

Team News

Estônia are anticipated to be without their captain Karol Mets due to suspension resulting from accumulated yellow cards, which means manager Henn will need to make adjustments to his defence, with Erko Jonne Tougjas among those who could slot into the starting lineup.

Karl Hein has exited the Estônia squad with a muscle injury after missing the prior match, while Matvei Igonen is expected to continue between the sticks following his clean sheet last time.

Robi Saarma was an unused substitute against Luxemburgo after sustaining an injury in their previous game, which could see Michael Schjonning-Larsen keep his spot at left wing-back in Henn’s five-man backline.

Karel Mustmaa is also vying for a return in the number-nine position after appearing as a substitute versus Luxemburgo, while Peetson is likely to keep his role as the right wing-back following his standout performance last time.

For Islândia, Albert Gudmundsson and Stefan Teitur Thordarson remain unavailable due to injuries incurred in matches one and two, respectively, while Mikael Egill Ellertsson is also set to miss out due to suspension from multiple yellow cards.

Veteran midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson may make a return to the starting XI after a substitute appearance in the last match, while Oskarsson, who has been involved in five of Islândia’s seven goals in this Nations League campaign (3 goals, 2 assists), is expected to lead the line once more.

Estônia probable starting XI:

Igonen; Peetson, Torgjas, Paskotsi, Kuusk, Schjonning-Larsen; Boom; Soomets, Kristal, Kait; Black country

Islândia probable starting XI:

Valdimarsson; Anderson, Gunnarsson, Magnusson, Tomasson; G Sigurdsson, Johannesson, Haraldsson; A Gudjohnsen, Oskarsson, Porsteinsson

Islândia remain unbeaten in their last five encounters with Estônia, though the four most recent have ended in stalemates, and given that both teams are still without defeat in this campaign, another draw seems a distinct possibility.

Both squads have displayed sufficient defensive solidity to suggest that neither will be too keen to take unnecessary risks, while their standings near the top of the group could lead both to settle for a single point instead of exposing themselves unnecessarily.