The Biggest Mistakes of Bettors and How to Improve Your Long-Term Results

Betting on football can be exciting and profitable, but it is also an activity full of pitfalls. Many bettors make common mistakes that harm their results, especially in the long run. In this article, we explore the biggest mistakes made by bettors and provide clear tips on what to do (and what to avoid) to improve your performance.

1. Lack of Planning and Bankroll Management

Mistake: Betting without a solid financial plan or without setting a fixed amount for your bankroll is one of the biggest mistakes made by both novice and experienced bettors. Many end up investing more than they can afford to lose, impulsively increase their stake after a loss, or use money meant for personal expenses. Lack of bankroll management can lead to irrecoverable losses and even abandonment of betting.

Without a plan, the bettor loses control over their actions and makes decisions based on emotion rather than logic and analysis, compromising not only financial results but also confidence and discipline.

How to Fix:

Set your initial bankroll responsibly:
Before you start, set aside an amount that you can invest in sports betting without compromising your personal finances. Never use money that should go to bills, savings, or essential expenses. Treat your bankroll as a controlled-risk investment and be prepared for losses along the way.
Practical Example: If your budget allows you to invest £1,000 as an initial bankroll, this will be the total limit you can afford to lose without affecting your financial stability.
Use fixed stakes to protect your bankroll:
Adopt a betting system where you define a fixed percentage of your bankroll for each bet. The ideal percentage ranges from 1% to 5%, depending on your risk profile and the size of your bankroll.
- Conservative stake (1-2%): Ideal for beginners or those seeking security, avoiding large fluctuations in the bankroll.
- Moderate stake (3-5%): Can be used by bettors with more experience and confidence in their method.
Practical Example: With a £1,000 bankroll, a 2% bet would be £20. Even after a series of losses, the impact on the bankroll will be controlled.
Avoid “all-in” at all costs:
Risking your entire bankroll on a single bet (known as “all-in”) is an extremely harmful mistake, even in situations that seem like “sure things.” In football, the unexpected happens – a disallowed goal, a red card, or a goal in the dying moments can completely change the outcome of the game.
Why Avoid? The “all-in” eliminates any possibility of recovery in case of a loss. Bankroll management is about prolonging your activity in the market and allowing you to profit long-term with small, consistent wins.
Set daily and weekly betting limits:
Define a value limit or the number of bets you will make daily or weekly. This helps prevent loss of control during consecutive losses (tilt) or overconfidence after a winning streak.
Practical Example: If your weekly limit is 10 bets with a 2% stake per bet, stick to this plan even if you have a great performance early in the week.
Use spreadsheets or apps to track your management:
Keeping detailed records of all your bets helps you track your performance, identify patterns, and assess the effectiveness of your bankroll management. Note down information such as:
- Date and type of bet.
- Chosen market and odds.
- Amount bet (stake) and result.
- Profit or loss generated.
Tools like Excel spreadsheets or betting management apps allow you to visualise your financial progress and correct any flaws in your method.
Understand variance and the long-term concept:
Betting involves variance – meaning that a streak of wins or losses is a natural part of the process. With good bankroll management, you can weather bad periods without compromising your capital and be prepared to take advantage of good times.
Important Tip: Never increase your bet size to try to recover losses quickly (the famous “martingale”). This drastically increases risk and can deplete your bankroll in just a few bets.

Summary: Key Points of Bankroll Management

To avoid lack of planning and protect your capital, follow these principles:

Set a realistic initial bankroll that won’t compromise your finances.
Use fixed stakes, betting between 1% and 5% of your bankroll per bet.
Avoid “all-in” or impulsive bets to recover losses.
Track all your bets and review the results regularly.
Set daily and weekly limits to avoid excessive betting.
Be patient and understand that success comes in the long term.

With solid bankroll management and proper planning, you’ll have more control over your bets and significantly increase your chances of achieving consistent profits in the long run.

2. Not Doing Proper Research

Mistake: Betting based on superficial guesses, such as a team’s popularity, intuition, or just recent performance, without considering statistical data, match context, and other essential factors. This mistake is common among both novice and experienced bettors, who end up relying on incomplete or biased information. The result? Poorly based decisions that increase the risk of losses.

Ignoring proper research means overlooking factors that directly influence the outcome of a match, such as lineups, motivation, history, and even weather conditions. The lack of study reduces your chances of making value bets.

How to Fix:

Analyse complete and up-to-date statistics:
Studying statistics should be the starting point for any bet. Use detailed data to support your analysis, such as:
- Recent form: Check the last 5 to 10 games of each team, analysing wins, losses, draws, and overall performance.
- Head-to-head history: Understand how teams perform when playing against each other. Some teams struggle against specific opponents, regardless of their current form.
- Home and away performance: Teams tend to be stronger at home, while others perform better playing away.
- Goals averages: Evaluate the average number of goals scored and conceded by each team, especially in leagues with either attacking or defensive characteristics.
- Specific statistics: For markets like corners or cards, check averages for corners conceded or cards received.
Tip: Use reliable and specialised platforms for statistics, such as those available on our website, to analyse data with precision.
Study the markets and choose based on your method:
Understanding the different types of betting markets is crucial for selecting the one that best fits your analysis. Examples include:
- Goals market: If you identify two attacking teams with a high goal average, you might explore the “Over 2.5 Goals” market.
- Asian Handicap: When a favourite dominates the match but the winning odds are low, the handicap market offers better alternatives.
- Both Teams to Score: Matches between teams with unstable defences and consistent attacks are ideal for this market.
- Corners: Check corner averages and the teams’ playing style, especially if they tend to attack down the wings.
Instead of just betting on the most popular market, such as match winner (1X2), look for opportunities in markets that provide real value and align with your analysis.
Follow news and match context:
The context of each game can drastically change your perspective. Keep an eye on:
- Injuries and suspensions: The absence of key players can weaken a team, especially in critical positions such as attack or defence.
- Confirmed line-ups: Wait for the official announcement of line-ups to confirm that the teams are complete or if there are any significant surprises.
- Motivation: Decisive games, such as championship finals or matches to avoid relegation, usually have higher intensity.
- Weather conditions: Heavy rain, snow, or wind can disadvantage teams with a technical style of play and favour matches with fewer goals.
- External factors: Long travel, physical fatigue, or simultaneous competitions (such as the Champions League) also affect team performance.
Practical Example: Team A may be the favourite on paper, but if they have 3 key players injured and are playing away on a poor pitch, this could balance the match. This information could be decisive for your bet.
Check recent trends and patterns:
Analysing trends can offer valuable insights. Ask yourself:
- Is the team on a positive or negative streak?
- Is there a trend for goals in the first half or second half?
- Does the away team have a recent history of losses playing away?
Identifying patterns helps predict team behaviour and create more accurate strategies for the selected markets.
Compare odds between bookmakers:
Seeking value in betting means finding odds that offer an advantage compared to the actual probability of the event. Before placing a bet, compare the odds offered by different bookmakers and choose the one that offers the best return.
Important: Poorly adjusted odds can be a great opportunity to profit, especially in less popular markets.

Summary: How to Fix the Lack of Proper Research

To avoid betting based on superficial guesses, follow these guidelines:

Analyse complete statistics: recent form, head-to-head history, goal averages, and home/away performance.
Understand the markets and choose the one that best aligns with your analysis.
Follow real-time news, such as injuries, confirmed line-ups, and tactical changes.
Observe the context and external conditions that may influence the match.
Identify specific patterns and trends of teams and competitions.
Compare odds between different bookmakers to ensure the best value possible.

With complete and well-founded research, your bets become more logical and less dependent on luck, increasing your chances of success in the long term.

3. Not Having Discipline

Mistake: The lack of discipline is one of the biggest pitfalls for those who bet on football. Many bettors, especially beginners, end up acting impulsively, whether to recover losses (the infamous tilt) or due to overconfidence after a winning streak. This behaviour leads to irrational bets and increases the risk of depleting your bankroll uncontrollably.

Discipline is crucial because success in betting is a long-term process. Without clear rules and strict emotional control, bettors can easily stray from their method and end up acting irresponsibly.

How to Fix:

Stay calm and control your emotions:
Betting under strong emotions, whether due to frustration after a loss or euphoria after a win, generally leads to hasty decisions that stray from the planned strategy. It’s essential to maintain emotional balance.
- Avoid betting right after a losing streak: If you’re in a bad moment, take a break and return only when you are calmer and more focused.
- Don’t increase your bet size after a win: Overconfidence can lead you to bet more than planned, potentially wasting your profits.
- Respect your limits: Set a maximum daily or weekly amount to bet and never exceed this limit, regardless of the results.
Practical tip: If you feel you’re losing control, step away temporarily from betting. Don’t make rushed decisions and try to maintain an organised routine.
Follow your strategy strictly:
A well-defined strategy is the foundation for consistent and profitable betting. Straying from your method due to impulse generally results in losses. Have a plan and stick to it, regardless of the circumstances.
- Set clear criteria for your bets: Choose markets, leagues, and types of games that you’ve analysed beforehand and that make sense within your method.
- Use fixed stakes and manage your bankroll: Always bet a fixed percentage of your bankroll (between 1% and 5%) to avoid large losses.
- Respect your own rules: For example, if you’ve decided that you’ll only bet on markets like “Over 2.5 Goals” in games that meet certain criteria, don’t change your approach just on impulse.
Practical example: If you bet on three games in one day and lost all of them, don’t bet on random games later that night just to “recover the losses.” Come back the next day, do a new analysis, and follow your original strategy.
Avoid betting on unknown events:
Many bettors, driven by anxiety or the desire to bet “on anything,” end up betting on leagues or sports they don’t know well. This is a serious mistake that increases the risk of losing money.
- Bet only on leagues or teams you follow: The more knowledge you have about the event, the greater your ability to make accurate analyses.
- Avoid smaller events with insufficient information: Unknown leagues or games with few available statistics make analysis difficult and increase the chances of poorly informed bets.
- Resist the temptation to bet due to lack of options: If there are no games that fit your method or analysis, simply don’t bet. The discipline of “not betting” is also part of being a good bettor.
Practical tip: Focus on quality, not quantity. It’s better to make a few well-analyzed bets than many random bets just because of impulse.

Summary: How to Fix the Lack of Discipline

Maintaining discipline in betting is what separates amateur bettors from professionals. To fix this mistake, follow these guidelines:

Control your emotions and avoid betting under stress, frustration, or euphoria.
Follow your strategy strictly and respect the limits you’ve set.
Adopt fixed stakes to protect your bankroll from large losses.
Bet only on leagues and markets you know well.
Avoid betting on unknown events or outside your plan just due to anxiety or lack of games.

With discipline and self-control, you will create healthier habits and increase your chances of long-term success, making more rational decisions aligned with your method.

4. Focusing on Quick Wins

Mistake: Many beginner bettors believe it is possible to make large profits in a short time and end up opting for risky strategies. Among the most common mistakes are betting on multiples with too many selections, choosing extremely high odds, or risking large amounts on a single bet. Although the potential return is tempting, the chances of success decrease considerably, leading to frequent losses and, often, the depletion of the entire bankroll.

Seeking quick wins is an impulsive behaviour that rarely works in the long term. Consistency and discipline are the real keys to success in sports betting.

How to Fix:

Prioritise value bets:
Instead of focusing solely on high odds and immediate returns, focus on finding bets that truly offer value. A value bet occurs when the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the real probability of the event happening.
- Practical example: If you analyse a game between Real Madrid and Sevilla and conclude there’s a 70% probability that Real Madrid will win, but the odds offered by the bookmaker are 1.60 (equivalent to 62.5% probability), this is a value bet.
- Use reliable tools and statistics to calculate the real probabilities of an event and compare them with the odds offered by the market.
Tip: Betting based on value in the long term ensures a more consistent and profitable method, even if the returns are not immediate.
Avoid excessive combinations in multiple bets:
Multiple bets, also known as accumulators, allow you to combine several selections into one bet. Although the final odds increase exponentially, each additional selection also increases the risk of loss. By combining many events, the chance of error becomes extremely high.
- Hidden risk: Even a “safe” selection can fail, and just one error can result in the entire bet being lost.
- Alternative strategy: Limit your multiple bets to 2 or 3 selections at most. This keeps a balance between risk and return.
- Practical example: Instead of creating a multiple with 6 selections (where the chance of winning is minimal), bet on 2 games with good analysis and fair odds. Your profit will be lower, but your chances of winning will be much higher.
Tip: Consider focusing on simple bets with a higher probability instead of trying the “big win” with risky multiples.
Think long-term:
Success in sports betting is not a one-off event, but a continuous process. Professional bettors understand that profit comes with patience, consistency, and decisions based on analysis.
- Manage expectations: Don’t expect to win every day. Even with a solid strategy, there will be periods of losses. The important thing is to maintain discipline and trust in your method.
- Set realistic goals: Set a monthly or quarterly goal for bankroll growth. For example, aim for a 5% to 10% increase each month, instead of trying to double your bankroll in one day.
- Consistency is key: Regularly betting with good pre-game analysis and efficient bankroll management will yield positive results over time.
Practical example: If you start with a £1,000 bankroll and aim for 5% growth per month, in 12 months your bankroll could double without excessive risks.

Summary: How to Avoid the Search for Quick Wins

To fix the mistake of seeking immediate results and build a sustainable path in sports betting, follow these guidelines:

Prioritise value bets with consistent analysis and odds comparisons.
Reduce the number of selections in multiple bets to minimise risks.
Think long-term and set realistic goals for your bankroll growth.
Avoid impulsive behaviours and understand that success is a marathon, not a sprint.

Focusing on the quality of your bets, rather than quantity or high odds, is the safest way to build a profitable and sustainable method. Remember: patience and discipline are your greatest allies.

5. Not Controlling the Psychological Factor

Mistake: Allowing emotions like anger, greed, frustration, or euphoria to influence your decisions is one of the biggest mistakes in the world of sports betting. Bettors who do not control the psychological factor tend to make serious errors, such as increasing bet sizes to recover losses, making impulsive bets on poorly analysed events, or abandoning well-structured strategies after a few losses. Negative emotional impact affects not only betting decisions but also the bettor’s confidence and mental balance.

How to Fix:

Rest after losses:
If you’re emotionally shaken after a losing streak, the best decision is to step away from betting temporarily. Making new bets while influenced by anger or frustration leads to impulsive and irrational decisions, worsening the losses further.
- Practical example: If you lose three bets in a row, take a break for a few hours or even for the rest of the day. Use this time to review your analyses and understand what went wrong, instead of trying to recover the losses immediately.
- Tip: Adopt a personal rule like “do not make new bets for 24 hours after a significant loss.” This avoids the temptation of tilt and allows you to return with a more balanced mindset.
Set clear limits:
Set limits for the number of bets and the total amount invested per day or week. Having a strict plan helps to avoid excessive betting during emotional turmoil.
- Daily bet limit: Set a maximum number of bets per day, such as 3 to 5 bets. Once you hit that limit, stop immediately, regardless of the results.
- Loss limit: Set a maximum daily or weekly loss, such as 5% to 10% of your bankroll. Once this limit is reached, stop and return only the next day.
- Discipline with wins: It’s also important to have limits for winnings. After reaching your daily target, stop betting to avoid unnecessary losses caused by euphoria.
- Tip: Use alarms or reminders to monitor your time and bets throughout the day, preventing you from exceeding the limits you’ve set.
Accept losses as part of the process:
Losses are inevitable in sports betting, even for experienced bettors. The key is to accept them rationally and understand that they are part of the long-term process.
- Don’t seek immediate recovery: Trying to recover the lost money with larger bets is a common mistake. This approach increases the risk of even bigger losses.
- Adopt a long-term mindset: Focus on building consistent results over time, not on winning every time. A single loss should not shake your confidence in your method.
- Practical tip: Keep a record of your bets and calculate your performance monthly. Looking at your long-term performance makes it easier to understand that temporary losses are natural and do not represent failures in your method.
Practice self-control and patience:
Emotional balance comes with practice. Work on your patience to avoid acting impulsively and make decisions based on logical analysis, not on impulse.
- Develop a pre-bet routine: Before making any bet, review your plan and method. Ask yourself: “Is this bet within my criteria? Is my analysis well-founded?”
- Take regular breaks: Take short breaks during betting days to keep your mind fresh and avoid mental exhaustion.
- Tip: Practices like meditation, physical exercise, or reading can help reduce stress and improve focus, keeping your emotional control in check.

Summary: How to Control the Psychological Factor

Managing the psychological factor is essential for any bettor who wants to succeed in the long term. To avoid emotions affecting your decisions:

Take breaks after significant losses and don’t seek immediate recovery.
Set strict limits on the number of bets and the maximum loss for daily or weekly sessions.
Adopt a long-term mindset and understand that losses are a natural part of the process.
Practice self-control and maintain an organised routine, focusing on rational and planned decisions.

Remember: keeping calm and emotional discipline is just as important as having good analyses and strategies. Controlling the psychological factor is what separates successful bettors from those who succumb to loss and chaos.

6. Ignoring the Importance of “Value” in Bets

Mistake: Betting solely based on intuition or the belief that a team “will win” without considering the concept of expected value. Many beginner bettors think they can just back the favourite or the team in the best form, but they ignore that the odds offered by the market don’t always justify the risk involved. Betting on events without value is a surefire way to incur losses in the long run.

What is Expected Value in Betting?

Expected value (or EV) is the concept that differentiates recreational bettors from profitable bettors. A bet has value when the real probability of an event happening is higher than the odds offered by the bookmaker.

Practical example: If you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning a game, but the bookmaker offers odds of 2.20 (which represents a 45.45% chance), this bet has value. This happens because the odds offered are above the real probability.

How to Fix:

Learn to calculate expected value (EV):
Use the formula below to determine if a bet has value:
EV = (Real Probability x Odds) – 1
If the result is positive, the bet has value. If not, it’s best to avoid it.
- Example: If the real probability of an event is 60% (0.6) and the odds offered are 1.90:
Identify mispriced odds:
Bookmakers calculate their odds based on analysis and markets, but they are not always correct. Mispriced odds arise due to several factors, such as:
- Exaggerated favouritism of popular teams (like Real Madrid or Barcelona).
- Lack of specific information that the market has not yet perceived (such as injuries, the opponent’s playing style, etc.).
- Too much money being placed on one side of the market, causing the bookmaker to adjust the odds.
Tip: Bet on events that offer mispriced odds, but always after carefully analysing the factors influencing the game.
Avoid very low odds:
Betting on favourites with extremely low odds, such as 1.10 or 1.20, might seem safe, but rarely is profitable in the long run. The risk-to-reward ratio doesn’t justify it, as just one unexpected result could wipe out many previously won bets.
- Example: If you bet £100 at odds of 1.10 and win, your profit is only £10. However, if you lose just one bet in this market, you’ll need to win several consecutive bets to recover the loss.
Solution: Prioritise odds that reflect value and avoid betting simply because you believe a team “can’t lose”.
Specialise in specific leagues or markets:
The more you understand a league or market, the better your chances of spotting value bets. Professional bettors often focus on smaller leagues or specific markets, where bookmakers make more errors in setting odds.
- Focus on markets like Both Teams to Score or Over 2.5 Goals if you have reliable statistical data to back your decisions.
- Explore regional leagues or secondary leagues, which receive less attention from bookmakers and are more likely to have mispriced odds.

Summary: How to Bet with Value

To avoid the mistake of ignoring value in betting, it’s essential to:

Calculate the expected value before each bet and focus only on bets with a positive EV.
Look for mispriced odds, especially in less-explored markets or games from smaller leagues.
Avoid betting on very low odds, as they rarely compensate the risk in the long run.
Specialise in specific markets to identify patterns and value opportunities.

Understanding the concept of value in betting is what sets apart amateur bettors from profitable ones. Remember that betting based on “gut feeling” might bring occasional wins, but it does not guarantee consistent profits. Betting with value is the key to long-term success.

5. Not Controlling the Psychological Factor

How to Fix:

Rest after losses:
If you’re emotionally shaken after a losing streak, the best decision is to step away from betting temporarily. Making new bets while influenced by anger or frustration leads to impulsive and irrational decisions, worsening the losses further.
- Practical example: If you lose three bets in a row, take a break for a few hours or even for the rest of the day. Use this time to review your analyses and understand what went wrong, instead of trying to recover the losses immediately.
- Tip: Adopt a personal rule like “do not make new bets for 24 hours after a significant loss.” This avoids the temptation of tilt and allows you to return with a more balanced mindset.
Set clear limits:
Set limits for the number of bets and the total amount invested per day or week. Having a strict plan helps to avoid excessive betting during emotional turmoil.
- Daily bet limit: Set a maximum number of bets per day, such as 3 to 5 bets. Once you hit that limit, stop immediately, regardless of the results.
- Loss limit: Set a maximum daily or weekly loss, such as 5% to 10% of your bankroll. Once this limit is reached, stop and return only the next day.
- Discipline with wins: It’s also important to have limits for winnings. After reaching your daily target, stop betting to avoid unnecessary losses caused by euphoria.
- Tip: Use alarms or reminders to monitor your time and bets throughout the day, preventing you from exceeding the limits you’ve set.
Accept losses as part of the process:
Losses are inevitable in sports betting, even for experienced bettors. The key is to accept them rationally and understand that they are part of the long-term process.
- Don’t seek immediate recovery: Trying to recover the lost money with larger bets is a common mistake. This approach increases the risk of even bigger losses.
- Adopt a long-term mindset: Focus on building consistent results over time, not on winning every time. A single loss should not shake your confidence in your method.
- Practical tip: Keep a record of your bets and calculate your performance monthly. Looking at your long-term performance makes it easier to understand that temporary losses are natural and do not represent failures in your method.
Practice self-control and patience:
Emotional balance comes with practice. Work on your patience to avoid acting impulsively and make decisions based on logical analysis, not on impulse.
- Develop a pre-bet routine: Before making any bet, review your plan and method. Ask yourself: “Is this bet within my criteria? Is my analysis well-founded?”
- Take regular breaks: Take short breaks during betting days to keep your mind fresh and avoid mental exhaustion.
- Tip: Practices like meditation, physical exercise, or reading can help reduce stress and improve focus, keeping your emotional control in check.

Summary: How to Control the Psychological Factor

Managing the psychological factor is essential for any bettor who wants to succeed in the long term. To avoid emotions affecting your decisions:

Take breaks after significant losses and don’t seek immediate recovery.
Set strict limits on the number of bets and the maximum loss for daily or weekly sessions.
Adopt a long-term mindset and understand that losses are a natural part of the process.
Practice self-control and maintain an organised routine, focusing on rational and planned decisions.

6. Ignoring the Importance of “Value” in Bets

What is Expected Value in Betting?

Practical example: If you believe a team has a 50% chance of winning a game, but the bookmaker offers odds of 2.20 (which represents a 45.45% chance), this bet has value. This happens because the odds offered are above the real probability.

How to Fix:

Learn to calculate expected value (EV):
Use the formula below to determine if a bet has value:
EV = (Real Probability x Odds) – 1
If the result is positive, the bet has value. If not, it’s best to avoid it.
- Example: If the real probability of an event is 60% (0.6) and the odds offered are 1.90:
Identify mispriced odds:
Bookmakers calculate their odds based on analysis and markets, but they are not always correct. Mispriced odds arise due to several factors, such as:
- Exaggerated favouritism of popular teams (like Real Madrid or Barcelona).
- Lack of specific information that the market has not yet perceived (such as injuries, the opponent’s playing style, etc.).
- Too much money being placed on one side of the market, causing the bookmaker to adjust the odds.
Tip: Bet on events that offer mispriced odds, but always after carefully analysing the factors influencing the game.
Avoid very low odds:
Betting on favourites with extremely low odds, such as 1.10 or 1.20, might seem safe, but rarely is profitable in the long run. The risk-to-reward ratio doesn’t justify it, as just one unexpected result could wipe out many previously won bets.
- Example: If you bet £100 at odds of 1.10 and win, your profit is only £10. However, if you lose just one bet in this market, you’ll need to win several consecutive bets to recover the loss.
Solution: Prioritise odds that reflect value and avoid betting simply because you believe a team “can’t lose”.
Specialise in specific leagues or markets:
The more you understand a league or market, the better your chances of spotting value bets. Professional bettors often focus on smaller leagues or specific markets, where bookmakers make more errors in setting odds.
- Focus on markets like Both Teams to Score or Over 2.5 Goals if you have reliable statistical data to back your decisions.
- Explore regional leagues or secondary leagues, which receive less attention from bookmakers and are more likely to have mispriced odds.

Summary: How to Bet with Value

To avoid the mistake of ignoring value in betting, it’s essential to:

Calculate the expected value before each bet and focus only on bets with a positive EV.
Look for mispriced odds, especially in less-explored markets or games from smaller leagues.
Avoid betting on very low odds, as they rarely compensate the risk in the long run.
Specialise in specific markets to identify patterns and value opportunities.

9. Ignoring the Value of Odds

Mistake: Beginner and even intermediate bettors often make the mistake of selecting bets solely based on guesses or the expectation that a team will win, without considering the true value of the odds. They often bet at the first bookmaker they find, without realising that better odds might be available elsewhere. This significantly reduces long-term profits and can undermine profitability, even with many winning bets.

Why Are Odds Important?

Odds represent the implied probability of an event occurring. Understanding and comparing odds is crucial because:

They directly impact your profits: The higher the odds, the greater the return in case of a win. Small differences in odds can have a considerable impact in the long run.
Odds may be mispriced: Some bookmakers adjust odds based on betting volume or non-statistical factors, creating opportunities for value.
They identify real value: Betting on odds that overestimate the probability of an event happening is one of the main ways to make consistent profits.

How to Correct It: Strategies to Maximise the Value of Odds

Use odds comparison sites:
Odds comparison platforms and tools are essential for finding the best available odds in the market. For example, if you want to bet on Real Madrid to win and one bookmaker offers odds of 1.80 while another offers 1.95, the second option maximises your return without increasing your risk.
- Use real-time odds comparison tools to ensure you are betting at the best available price.
- Pay attention to odds movements just before the game starts, as fluctuations can create great opportunities.
Have accounts with multiple bookmakers:
Limiting yourself to just one bookmaker restricts your options and could cost you money in the long term. Creating accounts with multiple bookmakers allows you to:
- Take advantage of the best odds in each event or market.
- Explore different bonuses and promotions, such as enhanced odds or cashbacks.
- Engage in arbitrage (when possible), taking advantage of discrepancies between odds at different bookmakers to secure profits.
Learn to calculate Expected Value (EV):
Expected Value helps to identify whether a bet has “real” value. A bet only has positive value if the implied probability of the odds is lower than the real probability of the event occurring.
- Formula: Expected Value = (Real Probability x Odds) – 1.
- If the result is positive, the bet has value. For example: If the probability of a team’s victory is 60% (0.60) and the bookmaker offers odds of 2.10, the calculation would be: (0.60 x 2.10) – 1 = 0.26 (positive value).
Betting on positive value is the key to making money in the long term.
Avoid very low odds (overpriced favourites):
Favourites with very low odds can be tempting, but they don’t always represent good bets. If a team is priced at 1.20, it implies a victory probability of about 83%. However:
- Unexpected results happen frequently in football, making such low odds risky.
- One single loss on low odds can jeopardise many wins, making it hard to recover.
Look for odds that offer a balance between risk and reward, especially in markets like “Total Goals” or “Asian Handicap”.
Pay attention to alternative markets:
Sometimes traditional markets (1X2) don’t offer the best value. Consider exploring:
- Asian Handicap: Adjusted odds to create more balance, allowing the bet to be returned in certain specific cases.
- Total Goals: Matches with attacking teams may have more value in markets like “Over 2.5 goals”.
- Corners and Cards: Lesser-explored markets may offer higher value odds because bookmakers adjust them less based on statistical data.

Impact of Small Differences in Odds

To illustrate the importance of always seeking the best odds, consider the following practical example:

If you bet £100 on odds of 1.90 and win, your profit is £90.
If, at another bookmaker, the same bet has odds of 2.00, your profit would be £100.

The difference of £10 may seem small in a single bet, but over 100 bets, the difference would be £1,000. This impact is even greater for professional bettors who place hundreds or thousands of bets each year.

Summary: Never Ignore the Value of Odds

Understanding the value of odds and always seeking the best prices is crucial for any bettor who wants to profit in the long run. Avoid making the mistake of betting based solely on intuition or convenience. Use odds comparison tools, have accounts with multiple bookmakers, and learn to identify real value through calculations and analysis. Small differences in odds can make a huge difference to your financial performance over time.

10. Underestimating the Impact of Time

Mistake: Many beginner bettors expect immediate results and give up quickly after a losing streak. This is one of the most common and harmful mistakes in the world of sports betting. Impatience leads to impulsive decisions, abandoning promising strategies, and, consequently, financial losses. Betting professionally requires a long-term vision, resilience, and discipline to deal with the inevitable market fluctuations.

Why Is Time So Important in Betting?

Success in sports betting is similar to investing. Just like any other form of financial investment, results don’t come overnight. Here’s why time is crucial:

Variance is inevitable: Sports betting involves probabilities, and even with good analysis, losses can occur due to unexpected events. Variance (high or low) is natural and must be dealt with patiently.
Methods need sampling: A good betting method can only be evaluated based on a large sample of bets (hundreds or even thousands), not just 10 or 20 isolated bets.
Consistent results take time: Betting with a long-term focus allows you to absorb temporary losses and profit from consistent decisions over weeks, months, and years.

How to Correct It: Long-Term Strategies

Have patience and resilience:
View betting as a long-term project. Don’t expect to make quick money or double your bankroll in a few days. Losses are part of the process, and the key is to stick to your method, adjusting it as necessary. Remember:
- Negative streaks are normal, even for the most experienced bettors.
- Odds always fluctuate, and variance can temporarily affect your bankroll.
Example: If you bet 1% of your bankroll per bet, even a streak of 10 consecutive losses will only affect 10% of your capital, allowing you to recover in the long run with a solid strategy.
Focus on long-term goals:
Instead of setting daily profit goals, which are unsustainable, set realistic goals over months or quarters. Some good practices include:
- Setting monthly or yearly return goals, such as growing your bankroll by 5-10% per month.
- Tracking metrics like ROI (Return on Investment) and strike rate to measure your progress.
- Comparing your performance over different periods to identify improvement patterns or weaknesses in your method.
Tip: Success doesn’t come from a “big win,” but from many small, consistent decisions over time.
Review your betting history:
Recording and reviewing your bets is essential for tracking progress. Instead of focusing solely on daily profit or loss, assess long-term performance. To do this:
- Use spreadsheets or specialised tools to record your bets (date, market, odds, stake, result, and profit/loss).
- Review periodically (weekly or monthly) to identify patterns, mistakes, and areas for improvement.
- Refine your strategies based on this analysis.

Summary: Be Patient for Long-Term Success

Time is a critical factor in sports betting. Those who focus on short-term results often make rash decisions and abandon their strategies prematurely. Betting successfully requires patience, the ability to withstand variance, and a commitment to long-term goals. The most successful bettors view sports betting as a marathon, not a sprint.