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Nacional vs Estrela Amadora Prediction – Primeira Liga” → “Nacional vs Estrela Amadora Prediction – Primeira Liga
Check out the best predictions for Nacional vs Estrela Amadora
Here you will find the best prediction for NACIONAL vs ESTRELA AMADORA in the Primeira Liga, along with match analysis and betting tips.
Read below our detailed analysis of both teams, including recent records and key statistics from their last games, to provide the best prediction for the Nacional vs Estrela Amadora match.
 Nacional |
|  Estrela Amadora |
Betting tip and prediction for this match between Nacional vs Estrela Amadora
The best prediction for Nacional vs Estrela Amadora in the Primeira Liga is a victory for Nacional or a draw (double chance) and less than 3.5 goals. Nacional has been particularly effective at home, with a solid record in their last ten matches where they scored in 80% of them and achieved 60% wins, suffering only 20% losses. In contrast, Estrela Amadora has struggled on the road, losing 60% of their last ten away matches, with just one win. They are not a high-scoring team, as their last five matches had fewer than 2.5 goals. Thus, it is reasonable to expect Nacional to come out on top, reflecting the odds that suggest a low-scoring encounter.
The best prediction for Nacional vs Estrela Amadora
Nacional wins or draw (double chance) and less than 3.5 goals
Match preview: Nacional vs Estrela Amadora
Nacional will host Estrela Amadora at Madeira Stadium for the 28th round of the Primeira Liga. The previous meeting in this league season on 10-11-2024 saw Estrela claimed victory at home with a score of 2-0. Over the last three years, encounters between these two teams have been evenly matched with one draw and two wins each in their last five meetings. It’s essential to consider home and away statistics, as both sides exhibit distinctively different performance records in home games compared to away fixtures.
Team analysis: Nacional
After achieving 8 wins, 5 draws, and 14 losses, the home team sits in 11th position with 29 points. They recently suffered a narrow loss to Santa Clara (1-0) but secured a significant home win against Casa Pia (3-1) before that. Nacional is notably stronger at home, recording 9 victories, 2 draws, and only 4 losses at their stadium in their last 30 games, while they struggled on the road with 1 win, 2 draws, and 12 losses. Over their last ten games in the league, Nacional has gained 20 points from a potential 30, with defensive solidity proving a challenge as they conceded in 9 of those matches. They’ve struggled to recover after conceding first, failing to turn around any of the 15 instances where they were behind. One notable aspect is that 8 of their 19 total goals scored have occurred in the closing phase of the first half.
Nacional aims to bounce back from their recent defeat against Santa Clara, largely against a side that continues to perform well, currently in 5th position in the league. Prior to this match, Nacional managed a convincing win against Casa Pia. In their last five fixtures, Nacional has achieved two wins along with three losses. Under the guidance of Tiago Margarido, they have excelled particularly in home matches, garnering 3 victories, a draw, and only one defeat in their last five encounters. They face Estrela, a direct competitor in the fight for survival, holding a 6-point lead over the first team in the relegation zone.
Team analysis: Estrela Amadora
The visiting side currently occupies 16th place, having accrued 23 points from 5 wins, 8 draws, and 14 losses. In their penultimate match, they fell to Vitória SC (2-0) and followed that with a home defeat against Sporting CP (3-0). Estrela relies more on home advantage, performing better in front of their fans, as evidenced by their record of only 1 win, 5 draws, and 9 losses away, scoring a mere 6 goals while conceding 27. Conversely, at home, they have 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with 19 goals scored and 23 conceded. In their last ten matches away from home in the league, they have recorded 1 victory, 3 draws, and 6 losses, collecting 6 points from a possible 30. The scoreline at half-time frequently ends 1-0 against them, as seen in 5 out of their 14 matches played. Defensively, they have allowed goals in 7 of their last 10 games, indicating vulnerabilities. Their recent away fixtures indicate a trend for low-scoring matches, with 11 of the last 13 yielding fewer than 3 goals. Notably, in 27 matches this season, they have only reversed a deficit in 1 match after conceding first.
Estrela Amadora has recently managed to escape the relegation zone, a situation that had plagued them for some time. This improvement can largely be attributed to a streak of four consecutive matches without a defeat, which included one win alongside three draws. However, their form has dipped again with two consecutive losses in their last games, raising concerns among fans and management alike. Currently, they sit level on points with AVS, the first team in the relegation zone. With a challenging away fixture in this 28th round, Estrela cannot afford any slip-ups. A result other than a win could push them back into the relegation spots, depending on the outcome of AVS’s match.
Best predictions for this match
Nacional wins or draw (double chance) and less than 3.5 goals
