Medellín vs Dep. Tolima Prediction – First Division
Check out the best predictions for Medellín vs Dep. Tolima
Here you will find the best prediction for Medellín vs Dep. Tolima in the Primera División, along with a match analysis and betting tips.
Read below for our detailed analysis of both teams, including recent performance and key statistics from previous matches to provide the best prediction for this match between Medellín and Dep. Tolima.
 Medellín |
|  Dep. Tolima |
Betting tip and prediction for this match between Medellín and Dep. Tolima
The best prediction for Medellín vs Dep. Tolima in the Primera División is a win or draw for Dep. Tolima. The Independiente Medellín has yet to earn points and needs to bounce back, but will face a confident and in-form Deportes Tolima. The visitors tend to set the pace and control the match, even away from home. With the capacity to exploit their opponent’s flaws, Tolima arrives well-prepared to continue their positive streak.
Best prediction for Medellín vs Dep. Tolima
Double chance, Draw or Dep. Tolima
Match prediction for Medellín vs Dep. Tolima
The teams Medellín and Dep. Tolima play at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot in a Primera División match (Apertura). Historically, this venue favors the visiting team, who boasts 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in the last 9 encounters. However, the last time they met at this stadium was on June 16, 2025, in a Primera División match that ended with Independiente Medellín winning 2-1. Goals were scored by Juan Arizala (90′) and Léider Berrío (18′) for Medellín, while Gonzalo Lencina (70′) netted for Dep. Tolima. In this matchup, playing at home could play a significant role, as Dep. Tolima shows substantial differences in results between home and away games.
Analysis of Medellín
The home team currently sits in 18th place without any points earned. They lost their opening match away to Deportivo Pasto (1-0) and followed with another away loss to Deportivo Cali (3-1). This is a team that has maintained its performance away from home, recording 6 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses in their last 30 matches as visitors; compared to 7 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses at home. In their last 10 home games, Medellín has registered 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss. The team allowed goals from opponents in 8 of their last 10 games, indicating defensive processes that need improvement. In 15 matches, they never managed to overturn the score in the 7 games where they conceded the first goal.
Independiente Medellín enters this round in a complicated situation, having earned no points from the first two matches and with a negative goal difference. Playing at home, they urgently need to regain confidence, better organize their defense, and exploit attacking opportunities with more precision. This third-round debut is a chance to enhance their performance, but they must maintain maximum concentration and minimize individual errors, especially against a well-performing opponent.
Analysis of Dep. Tolima
The visiting team is currently in 2nd place with 6 points. In their debut, they won away against Junior FC (0-2) and followed with a home victory over Alianza Petrolera (2-0). This is a team that has surprisingly been stronger away than at home; their last 30 matches show 10 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses as visitors, compared to 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses at their home ground. In the last 10 matches played away across all competitions, Dep. Tolima has won 7, drawn 1, and lost 2. Their defensive solidity has been one of their strengths, as they have only conceded goals in 3 of their last 10 matches. In the last 13 away games across all competitions, one period stands out: they conceded 5 of their 8 goals during the minutes (31’-45’).
Meanwhile, Deportes Tolima comes off two consecutive victories and occupies a comfortable position in the table with a positive goal difference. When playing away, the team tends to set the pace and maintain defensive consistency, capitalizing on any opportunity to counterattack. Their performance in the first two rounds shows that Tolima is in good form, and the visiting team should remain competitive, even when playing far from home, potentially making life difficult for Independiente Medellín.
Best prediction for Medellín vs Dep. Tolima
Double chance, Draw or Dep. Tolima
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