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Palmeiras vs São Paulo Prediction – Paulista Championship

Check out the best predictions for Palmeiras vs São Paulo

Here you will find the best prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo in the Paulista Championship, along with an analysis of the match and betting tips.

Read below for our detailed analysis of both teams, including recent records and key statistics from their last games to provide the best prediction for this match between Palmeiras vs São Paulo.

Palmeiras logo
Palmeiras

  • January 24, 2026 – 21::30
  • Paulista A1

  • 2026
  • Paulista Série A1 – Round 5
São Paulo logo
São Paulo


Betting tip and prediction for this match between Palmeiras vs São Paulo

The best prediction for the Palmeiras vs São Paulo match in the Paulista Championship is less than 2.5 goals. This classic rivalry carries a strong strategic element, and recent history favors the home team, Palmeiras. They often control this type of game at home, imposing intensity and limiting their opponent’s spaces. Meanwhile, São Paulo tends to adopt a more cautious approach, prioritizing defensive security. Classics are usually decided by details, and with a more studied tempo. Hence, the betting tip is focused on fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.

Best prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo

Less than 1.5 goals in the 1st half (live betting tip)
Less than 3.5 goals (live betting tip, double or triple)
Less than 3.0 Asian goals (riskier tip)

Match prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo

The teams Palmeiras and São Paulo play at Allianz Parque in a match of the Paulista A1 (Paulista Series A1). In this stadium, the record of direct confrontations is favorable to the home team, which has 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses in the last 13 matches. The last time they faced each other in this stadium was on March 11, 2025, in a Paulista A1 match that ended with Palmeiras winning (1-0). The only goal of the match was scored by Raphael Veiga (45′). In this match, the home factor could play an important role, as both teams show significant differences in results achieved at home and as visitors.

Palmeiras Analysis

The home team currently occupies 3rd place, with 9 points from 3 wins and 1 loss. In their penultimate match, they secured a home victory against Mirassol (1-0). In their last match, they lost away to Novorizontino (4-0). This is a team affected by the home factor, performing stronger when playing in front of their fans, as they record 7 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses in their last 30 matches as visitors, scoring 21 goals and conceding 22. In contrast, they have 11 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss at home, with 34 goals scored and 6 conceded. In their last 10 home games, Palmeiras has recorded 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Their defensive solidity has been one of their strong points, having only conceded goals in 1 of their last 4 matches. Their attack has been consistent, scoring in 3 of the last 4 games in this competition. Their home matches trend towards few goals, with 18 of their last 41 matches ending with less than 1.5 goals and 26 of 41 with less than 2.5 goals. In 15 games, they have only managed to overturn the score in 1 of the 5 matches where they conceded the first goal.

Palmeiras comes into the classic backed by a solid record, having not lost to São Paulo in their last six direct confrontations. They rely on this positive history to maintain superiority in big games. In the Paulistão, the Verdão has shown characteristic work with tactical organization, intensity, and efficiency in decisive moments. Coach Abel Ferreira, attentive to details, is expected to define the best team to face this significant challenge. The goal is to control the game, impose rhythm, and exploit the opponent’s weaknesses. The mission is clear: turn consistency into three more points.

São Paulo Analysis

After 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, the visiting team is currently in 10th place, with 4 points. In their last match, they lost (2-3) at home against Portuguesa, having drawn (1-1) away against Corinthians in the match before. This is a team that is stronger when playing in their stadium, recording 2 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses in their last 30 games as visitors, compared to 8 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses at home. In their last 10 matches played away across all competitions, São Paulo has won 2, drawn 1, and lost 7. Defensive solidity hasn’t been their strong suit, as they have conceded goals in 3 of their last 4 matches, but their attack has been scoring regularly, finding the net in 3 of their last 4 matches in this competition. In 15 games, they have never managed to overturn the score in the 8 matches where they conceded the first goal. In the last 20 away games across all competitions, two key periods stand out: they scored 6 of their 14 goals between the minutes (76′-90′); they conceded 29 of their 59 goals between the minutes (46′-60′).

São Paulo enters the classic carrying an extra burden: besides their unfavorable direct record against Palmeiras, their campaign in the Paulistão has fallen short of what fans expected. Far from the top, the Tricolor is still seeking consistency to at least enter the classification zone. On the field, the team fluctuates and pays dearly for mistakes at crucial moments. Now, at Allianz Parque, the challenge becomes even tougher. Breaking the dominance of their biggest rival has become a necessity, not just a desire. The classic emerges as a test of character. It’s the kind of game that can change the course of the season.

Best prediction for Palmeiras vs São Paulo

Less than 1.5 goals in the 1st half (live betting tip)
Less than 3.5 goals (live betting tip, double or triple)
Less than 3.0 Asian goals (riskier tip)

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